S10-A. Subscription Lifetime Analysis (AMWAY-specific)
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AMWAY differentiator ⭐ — Nutrilite and Artistry subscriptions are core to AMWAY revenue. Automatically detect the signup → renewal → pause → cancel state machine and churn-risk signatures.
1. URL & Personas
/subscription· P4 (CX), P1 (ABO Field)
2. User Stories
P4 — Automatically extract the top 100 ABOs that exhibit a 6-month churn signature, with recommended automated win-back campaigns.
P1 — Sponsors track subscription retention for their own Downline on a single screen.
3. Input UI
- Cohort (all ABO / Customer / by level / by country)
- Period (12 / 24 months)
- Churn signature threshold
- Persona switcher
4. Data Mix
| Data | Source |
|---|---|
| Subscription node | Neptune (~10K active + ~5K cancelled) |
| SubscriptionEvent | Neptune (start / renew / pause / cancel) |
| Payment failure history | Neptune (attributes) |
| 90-day activity | OrderTransaction + ABODirectSale |
| Re-signup after cancellation | SubscriptionEvent type='start' |
5. Churn Signatures (z-score based)
| Signature | Definition |
|---|---|
| Repeated payment failures | At least 2 of the last 3 auto-payments fail |
| Zero activity | No activity for 30 days while auto-renewal is imminent |
| Downline drop-off (ABO) | Sponsor has at least one Downline cancel |
| Surge within 24 hours of price increase | Cancel-event spike after the price-increase announcement |
| Seasonal effect | Avoidance of end-of-quarter renewals |
6. Processing Pipeline
1. Count per Subscription state in Neptune
2. Compute 30-day retention curves
3. Apply churn-signature rules → high-risk ABO / Customer list
4. Recommend automated win-back campaigns (Bedrock + persona rules)
5. For the P1 persona, group by Sponsor and alert the responsible ABO
7. Output UI
- Left: Subscription state-machine diagram (Sankey)
- Center: 12-month retention curve (by cohort)
- Right: Top 100 high-risk ABOs (signature labels)
- Bottom: Automated win-back campaign simulation (linked to S5)
8. Guardrails
- PII masking
- No auto-send (action only after P4 review)
- Auto-exclude consent-missing members
9. Demo Scenarios
- Cohort 12-month retention curve → 50% of new ABOs cancel after 6 months
- Top 100 high-risk subscribers → signature labels (3 rules)
- Automated win-back campaign simulation → recommended channel and message + projected ROAS